ADR and Adversity
Troy M. Morris, Director of Operations
5 minute read
Active Debris Removal (ADR) involves many concepts, terms, and technical aspects. These encompass sterile standards of scientific discussion, as well as advantageous assets and deceitful disadvantages. As KMI columns attempt to illuminate on the issues of our industry and relate them to the larger human experience, introspection is necessary at times to ensure a clearer outlook to come, even if it begins as a critical inspection of these technical pieces. Of the many terms related to ADR, few are as quickly used as the now-popularized term for cascading collisions, “Kessler Syndrome.” The ubiquitous term of that doomsday scenario owes its origin to Donald Kessler, the lead author of the 1978 paper “Collision frequency of Artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt,” but the origins of that potential event precede the first artificial satellite launched in 1957 - Sputnik. While there are specific barriers in the exponential issue of orbital debris that need to be surmounted, including engineering, industry, and policy as will be discussed in the following, the most foreboding of barriers is time and human reaction to the idea of exponential issues like cascading collisions.
Considering the familiarity many have with exponential issues, whether that of a compounding interest in finance, collapsing snowfalls of an avalanche, or the increasing infections of a pandemic, it is surprising that the critical factor of the time left to address an issue before a catastrophe is often of low regard. As a snowball at a summit is easier to intercept than the many tons that follow, so too is it better to intercept the most potentially dangerous objects in orbit early on.
A 2020 presentation, “Identifying the 50 Statistically-Most-Concerning Derelict Objects in LEO,” by Darren McKnight and his co-authors identified that the most concerning objects are often rocket bodies. Since early rocketry advanced objects to orbit, the remnants of those launches, and launches since, continue to linger as the largest threats to continued orbital operations. While the societies of Earth must examine the barriers that hamper ADR, time continues to tick for the debris already overhead; colliding pieces are creating more debris on any given day. Ignored or acknowledged, the difficulty of ADR will grow as orbital debris is created from new launches and continued collisions of old objects.
Of the various difficulties in ADR, the physical challenges present in removing debris are often the early emphasis of researchers. While there are various methods discussed and evaluated by researchers, succinctly summarized in a 2019 article, “Review of Active Space Debris Removal Methods,” the progress and potential of debris removal continues to grow. To the numerous problems facing any space mission, including launch, power, propulsion, etc., ADR adds the difficulty of rendezvous with an uncontrolled object. Solutions are arising to characterize debris, often through innovative AI, and to capture the debris, including advanced end-effectors, as these innovative creations of code and engineering address the actual task of ADR. Unfortunately, large barriers exist beyond the mission objectives in the organizations that support and govern such orbital operations.
Due to the interconnected and complex relationships of the aerospace industry, novel solutions and developments can struggle to intercede in the regular cycles of industry. While this secondary effect of successful business is not necessarily new, overcoming this barrier has also been addressed before and further engagement on those activities can continue to improve the industry and allow innovations to rise. This is most easily done by supporting small businesses through incubators, accelerators, specific-objective conferences, or traditional investment partnerships. The first half of these solutions, whether hosted or supported by major members of industry, provide an opportunity for innovative ideas that are in eager demand within the aerospace industry, particularly in ADR. From these fertile foundations entrepreneurial engineers and academics can prepare to participate in conferences with workshops that drive innovation by combining established experts, new ideas, and outside perspectives to advance on a given task. With such potential for necessary innovation, these relatively small, early investments by industry can prove more productive than small enterprises seeking to go alone.
Respecting the needs for national security and intellectual property, closed-door deals with federal funding are both endemic and essential in aerospace, with solicitations often sought on programs that have already been all-but-secured through previous meetings and relationships. These closed-door deals pay lip-service to opportunity, while tying up smaller organizations on activities that are unlikely to succeed. While established members of industry are often the immediate benefactor of such slimmed selections, the industry at large suffers a loss of advancement that might be supported by more transparent and broader solicitations - a necessary step for government. The expansive endeavors and multiple missions of government are important, yet often entangled by the second side of softworded and secretive deals. By allowing quick infusion of funding, such as successful Pitch Days and open solicitations, underrepresented organizations are able to advance innovation for the benefit of all.
Besides clarifying competitive bids, government plays a crucial role outside of its impressive pocketbook: policy. Specific definitions of debris will ease the potential actions of ADR by delineating between functional, operational spacecraft (in current use or dormant) versus non-functional orbital debris. Additional steps to clarify policy include identifying ADR as one of the three necessary legs for continued orbital operations, in addition to current policies supporting Mitigation and Space Situational Awareness.
Such a strong and necessary position is not radical or new and has been supported by a variety of legislative sessions and executive administrations, most recently defended by the NASA Inspector General report on January 27, 2021. Beyond these clarifications are the logistical questions of permissions and procedure that a domestic company will need to pursue for interacting with a piece of debris that originates from its own country, but also to readdress gaps left by the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. While important in many respects, this treaty predates Kessler Syndrome and the ADR necessary to prevent it. Of the previously mentioned rocket bodies, many are remnants from countries lacking national ADR missions. As Kessler and others determined in 2010 with, “The Kessler Syndrome: Implications to Future Space Operations,” successful ADR programs will need to remove five or more significant objects annually, requiring ADR as a joint effort between countries.
In all, the barriers that exist to ADR are in solutions of engineering , industry support of innovation, and governmental support and policy, but the largest barrier of time continues advancing to the eventual catastrophic collisions in our cosmos. ADR in many forms needs to be actively pursued by the organizations and individuals that benefit from orbital infrastructure, for many reasons including stewardship, protection of programs, and the reality of financial cost in an exponential issue. These costs, both financial and metaphorical, are far-reaching, impacting those who rely on space for communication across continents, commerce at digital machines, entertainment around the world, weather prediction for the coming weekend, and accurate positioning for travel. As this introspection of the adversity to ADR has covered, there are many areas available for improvement, some requiring information more than investment. But they come back to that starting truth of time and exponential issues. As Adam Kall stated as a panelist during “The Remediation, Management, and Defense of our Orbital Assets,” at the 2020 North American Space Summit, “the most expensive way to solve space debris is to do nothing right now.”
Recommended column to read next: The Sky is Falling and That’s Okay